Incentives matter, tobacco taxes edition

One of the topics I’ve been researching for a forthcoming article is the effect of the higher tobacco taxes imposed by the Childrens Health Insurance Program Reauthorization Act (CHIPRA). CHIPRA raised tobacco taxes across the board but it didn’t raise them equally; some products were hit harder than others. The most relevant disparities are between roll-your-own (RYO) tobacco and pipe tobacco, and between small cigars and large cigars.

Before CHIPRA, pipe tobacco and RYO were both taxed federally at $1.10 per pound. After CHIPRA, the former increased to $2.83 while the latter increased to $24.78. Since the two products can be treated as substitutes for each other, this naturally led to manufacturers and consumers shifting to products labeled as pipe tobacco for use in rolling cigarettes. A similar shift affected the cigar market, where it became advantageous for some producers of small cigars to slightly increase the weight of their products to qualify as large cigars. (Direct comparison of taxes on small and large cigars is complicated by the fact that small cigars are taxed by weight and large cigars by value.)

I knew that these market distortions were occurring, but I didn’t realize just how substantial they were until reading a report from the General Accounting Office (PDF) from earlier this year on the effects of CHIPRA taxes. Here in two charts is a dramatic illustration of unintended consequences at work:

At first glance this may look like booming business for producers of pipe tobacco and cigars, but of course that’s not what’s happening. The changes are almost entirely nominal. Yet since they reduce tax receipts for the government, the pressure is on now to fix the disparity by raising taxes yet again. This would be another blow to producers of traditional pipe tobacco and large cigars, as well as the retailers who sell their products.

Comments

  1. Thank you for sharing those graphs. I’d also known that SCHIP had changed buying habits but was not aware to how great an extent!

    - MJM
    P.S. And *VERY* nicely done with your article in The Atlantic!!! http://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2012/12/the-case-against-a-smoke-free-america/266220/

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